{"id":57995,"date":"2017-04-24T22:20:23","date_gmt":"2017-04-24T22:20:23","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2017-04-24T22:20:23","modified_gmt":"2017-04-24T22:20:23","slug":"lecons-du-premier-tour-de-la-presidentielle-francaise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/lecons-du-premier-tour-de-la-presidentielle-francaise\/","title":{"rendered":"Le\u00e7ons du premier tour de la pr\u00e9sidentielle fran\u00e7aise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><u>Le\u00e7ons du premier tour de la pr\u00e9sidentielle fran\u00e7aise<\/u><u>(info # 012404\/17)<\/u><u>[Analyse]<\/u><\/p>\n<p>Par Amram Castellion<strong>\u00a9 Me<\/strong><strong>tula<\/strong><strong>N<\/strong><strong>ews<\/strong><strong>A<\/strong><strong>gency<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Pour ceux qui craignaient un r\u00e9sultat serr\u00e9 et une longue attente, la soir\u00e9e d\u2019hier a du moins offert le soulagement d\u2019une conclusion claire. Emmanuel Macron emporte largement le premier tour, avec 23,86% des suffrages exprim\u00e9s, soit deux points et demi devant Marine Le Pen qui plafonne \u00e0 21,43%. En troisi\u00e8me arrive Fran\u00e7ois Fillon, qui obtient juste un peu moins de 20% des voix. Il est imm\u00e9diatement suivi de Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon \u00e0 19,6%. Puis viennent les petits candidats, parmi lesquels deux \u00e9mergent&nbsp;: celui du parti socialiste, Beno\u00eet Hamon, \u00e0 6,3%, et le candidat dissident de la droite eurosceptique, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, \u00e0 4,7%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Dupont-Aignan a jou\u00e9 pour la droite, en 2017, le r\u00f4le que Christiane Taubira avait jou\u00e9 pour la gauche en 2002. Il a pris \u00e0 Fran\u00e7ois Fillon des voix qui, en son absence, se seraient port\u00e9es sur lui et l\u2019auraient plac\u00e9 au second tour.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Quant \u00e0 Hamon, son \u00e9chec \u2013 la plus mauvaise performance du parti socialiste depuis Gaston Defferre en 1969 \u2013 marque&nbsp;la mort d\u2019un compromis historique&nbsp;: celui qui permettait \u00e0 une gauche raisonnable et gestionnaire de partager le m\u00eame parti qu\u2019une gauche plus radicale, plus enthousiaste et moins r\u00e9aliste. Les gestionnaires sont, pour l\u2019essentiel, partis chez Macron \u2013 qui a par ailleurs recrut\u00e9 une partie du centre et au moins une \u00e9cole de la droite, la famille chiraquienne. Les radicaux sont partis chez M\u00e9lenchon&nbsp;; et ceux qui voulaient continuer \u00e0 faire le lien entre les deux groupes sont devenus inaudibles pour la plus grande partie de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>La victoire de Macron au deuxi\u00e8me tour est \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s certaine. Elle montre deux choses&nbsp;: d\u2019abord le pouvoir de s\u00e9duction du candidat et prochain pr\u00e9sident&nbsp;; mais aussi et surtout la remarquable habilet\u00e9 tactique de Fran\u00e7ois Hollande, le pr\u00e9sident sortant. Devenu si impopulaire qu\u2019il a d\u00fb renoncer \u00e0 se pr\u00e9senter, Hollande a man\u0153uvr\u00e9 avec talent pour placer son successeur sur orbite. La corruption de la justice, pouss\u00e9e par l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif \u00e0 consacrer des moyens disproportionn\u00e9s \u00e0 des accusations mal ficel\u00e9es contre le candidat de droite, l\u2019a plomb\u00e9 dans l\u2019opinion. La s\u00e9duction des journalistes et des patrons de presse par Macron a fait le reste.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 sa belle victoire d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui, Macron devra faire face \u00e0 deux fragilit\u00e9s structurelles.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tout d\u2019abord, il n\u2019a pas de parti et celui qu\u2019il est en train de mettre en place n\u2019aura pas la&nbsp;majorit\u00e9 aux \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives des 11 et 18 juin prochains. L\u2019\u00e9poque o\u00f9 un nouveau pr\u00e9sident fran\u00e7ais recevait la confiance&nbsp;<em>a priori<\/em>&nbsp;du pays, qui lui donnait une majorit\u00e9 sans m\u00eame regarder l\u2019identit\u00e9 des candidats qui le soutenaient, est r\u00e9volue. La gauche, d\u00e9sormais divis\u00e9e en deux familles irr\u00e9conciliables, n\u2019a aucune chance d\u2019avoir une majorit\u00e9. La droite, affaiblie par sa d\u00e9faite d\u2019hier, aurait besoin d\u2019un nouveau souffle qui n\u2019est pas impossible, mais reste improbable.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Le plus probable est donc que, dans moins de deux mois, la France aura un Parlement sans majorit\u00e9 claire, o\u00f9 la droite et un ou plusieurs autres groupes (macronistes, socialistes, voire Front National) devront trouver pour gouverner de fragiles accords de coalition. Un gouvernement faible, en conflit permanent avec un pr\u00e9sident faible.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Et surtout, au moment m\u00eame o\u00f9 les institutions s\u2019installent dans le dysfonctionnement permanent, la France confirme plus que jamais qu\u2019elle est une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 profond\u00e9ment divis\u00e9e, o\u00f9 pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 de la population est en \u00e9tat de rage permanente contre l\u2019autre moiti\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Les commentateurs ont fait semblant de se scandaliser, hier soir, de ce que Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon refusait de soutenir Emmanuel Macron au deuxi\u00e8me tour contre Marine Le Pen. Il n\u2019y a rien, pourtant, de plus logique. Si les \u00e9lecteurs de M\u00e9lenchon et ceux de Le Pen s\u2019opposent en principe sur la question identitaire \u2013 les premiers multiculturalistes et plut\u00f4t islamophiles, les seconds centr\u00e9s sur l\u2019identit\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise \u2013 ils se rejoignent sur presque tous les autres points.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>M\u00e9lechonistes comme lep\u00e9nistes voient le monde comme un complot des \u00e9lites (la finance, \u00ab&nbsp;le syst\u00e8me&nbsp;\u00bb) contre les petites gens. Les deux groupes veulent un effort massif de redistribution en faveur des plus modestes. Tous deux veulent mettre fin \u00e0 la participation de la France dans l\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne et, plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, r\u00e9duire l\u2019ouverture de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise aux flux commerciaux, capitalistiques et humains. Et surtout, les uns comme les autres sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 utiliser pour cela toutes les ressources d\u2019un Etat autoritaire, qui ne se soucierait pas trop des droits individuels et imposerait sa volont\u00e9 par la force.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Dans cette approche commune de la politique \u2013 autoritaire, redistributrice et parano\u00efaque \u2013 m\u00e9lenchonistes et lep\u00e9nistes ont assez de points communs pour faire passer leurs divergences au second plan. Au cours de la campagne qui vient de s\u2019achever, une partie significative de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait des allers-retours de l\u2019un \u00e0 l\u2019autre.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Dans les mois et les ann\u00e9es qui viennent, le pr\u00e9sident Macron provoquera, in\u00e9vitablement, d\u2019importantes d\u00e9ceptions \u2013 d\u2019abord parce que c\u2019est le cas de tous les pouvoirs en place, mais aussi de par l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9 dans laquelle il risque de se trouver, faute de majorit\u00e9, de r\u00e9former les nombreux blocages de la France. Il ne serait pas surprenant que, dans une telle situation, la \u00ab&nbsp;deuxi\u00e8me France&nbsp;\u00bb \u2013 celle de Le Pen, M\u00e9lenchon et des petits candidats extr\u00e9mistes \u2013 trouve un moyen de s\u2019allier en une opposition unique.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hier, cette France de la rage a repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 43% des \u00e9lecteurs. Apr\u00e8s quelques ann\u00e9es d\u2019un r\u00e9gime qui ne montre aucune inclination \u00e0 les \u00e9couter ou \u00e0 prendre en compte leurs int\u00e9r\u00eats, ce pourcentage devrait augmenter. Il n\u2019y a aucune raison d\u2019\u00eatre certain&nbsp;<em>a priori<\/em>&nbsp;que cette hausse s\u2019arr\u00eatera en-dessous du seuil de 50% qui lui donnera le pouvoir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le\u00e7ons du premier tour de la pr\u00e9sidentielle fran\u00e7aise(info # 012404\/17)[Analyse] Par Amram Castellion\u00a9 MetulaNewsAgency &nbsp; Pour ceux qui craignaient un r\u00e9sultat serr\u00e9 et une longue attente, la soir\u00e9e d\u2019hier a du moins offert le soulagement d\u2019une conclusion claire. Emmanuel Macron emporte largement le premier tour, avec 23,86% des suffrages exprim\u00e9s, soit deux points et demi&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":57996,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le\u00e7ons du premier tour de la pr\u00e9sidentielle fran\u00e7aise | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le\u00e7ons du premier tour de la pr\u00e9sidentielle fran\u00e7aise(info # 012404\/17) Par Amram Castellion\u00a9 MetulaNewsAgency &nbsp; 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