{"id":58251,"date":"2017-07-02T17:12:39","date_gmt":"2017-07-02T17:12:39","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2017-07-02T17:12:39","modified_gmt":"2017-07-02T17:12:39","slug":"liran-a-conquis-la-syrie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/liran-a-conquis-la-syrie\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019Iran a Conquis la Syrie"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>L\u2019Iran a Conquis la Syrie<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u2019Iran \u00e9merge comme le gagnant de la guerre civile et ceci est de mauvaise augure pour nous tous.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Par Dr. Mordechai Kedar<\/strong>, professeur \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Bar Ilan, ex-agent du Renseignement militaire de Tsahal, sp\u00e9cialiste des questions arabes<\/p>\n

Traduit et adapt\u00e9 par Albert Soued \u00e9crivain, http:\/\/symbole.chez.com<\/a> pour www.nuitdorient.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Source: http:\/\/www.israelnationalnews.com\/Articles\/Article.aspx\/20689<\/p>\n

Le monde occidental a accept\u00e9 le fait que la Russie, pr\u00e9sente sur le sol syrien depuis 2 ans, occupe la c\u00f4te m\u00e9diterran\u00e9enne avec 2 Ports et 2 a\u00e9roports. Il s\u2019est  habitu\u00e9 \u00e0 voir le Hezbollah et les milices shiites libanaises impliqu\u00e9es dans le conflit syrien et soutenant le pr\u00e9sident Bashar el Assad. Par ailleurs, d\u2019autres milices shiites, dirig\u00e9es par les Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution Iranienne affluent d\u2019Irak et d\u2019Afghanistan. Ces forces ont parfois des pertes et cela donne l\u2019impression sur le terrain que l\u2019Iran a simplement envoy\u00e9 des \u00ab gangs \u00bb shiites combattre des \u00ab gangs \u00bb sunnites.<\/p>\n

Mais la situation r\u00e9elle est totalement diff\u00e9rente, car les forces iraniennes engag\u00e9es en Syrie ne sont plus des \u00ab gangs \u00bb, ni d\u2019ailleurs des milices. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019une v\u00e9ritable arm\u00e9e, form\u00e9e et instruite par les Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution, une arm\u00e9e qui a une infanterie, des chars, de l\u2019artillerie, des commandos, une force a\u00e9rienne, une logistique et un r\u00e9seau de renseignements. Cette arm\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 construite lentement pendant 4 ans, tout au long de la guerre civile, \u00ab au su et au vu \u00bb des medias mondiaux.<\/p>\n

La plus grande offensive men\u00e9e par cette arm\u00e9e a permis de lib\u00e9rer la r\u00e9gion d\u2019Alep de l\u2019emprise de l\u2019Etat islamique ou EI (2016). La Russie et l\u2019Iran ont coop\u00e9r\u00e9, la Russie bombardant par les airs et les forces iraniennes aid\u00e9es du Hezbollah et d\u2019autres milices shiites ont conquis le terrain pour le r\u00e9gime d\u2019Assad. L\u2019Iran a \u00e9largi son domaine d\u2019influence au d\u00e9but de 2017, en s\u2019emparant de toute la zone d\u00e9sertique du Centre et de l\u2019Est de la Syrie. Aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019Etat islamique est en voie de disparition et se bat pour sa survie en 3 endroits : \u00e0 Mossoul en Irak, \u00e0 Raqqa en Syrie et \u00e0 Deir al Zor. Quand Mossoul tombera le reste suivra.<\/p>\n

Il faut savoir que l\u2019arm\u00e9e r\u00e9guli\u00e8re iranienne a profit\u00e9 du vide laiss\u00e9 par la retraite de l\u2019Etat Islamique de ces zones tr\u00e8s peu peupl\u00e9es. On estime aujourd\u2019hui que l\u2019Iran contr\u00f4le 60% de la Syrie<\/strong>, directement par l\u2019arm\u00e9e des Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution ou par le biais du Hezbollah et des milices shiites.<\/p>\n

Les forces arm\u00e9es iraniennes ont des bases importantes en Syrie qui leur permettent de se mouvoir librement dans le pays. Tadmor est une base a\u00e9rienne au Centre du pays, qui autorise l\u2019Iran  \u00e0 acheminer rapidement n\u2019importe quel \u00e9quipement militaire, arme, ou missile. Et ceci pr\u00e9occupe Tsahal qui a attaqu\u00e9 en mars dernier cette base, d\u00e9truisant sans doute un d\u00e9p\u00f4t de missiles et de roquettes.<\/p>\n

Rappelons que jusqu\u2019ici, l\u2019Iran acheminait des armes en Syrie par la voie des lignes a\u00e9riennes commerciales, via Damas ; et quand Isra\u00ebl bombardait les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts \u00e0 l\u2019a\u00e9roport, les medias s\u2019indignaient\u2026 Devant ces destructions syst\u00e9matiques, l\u2019Iran a conclu qu\u2019Isra\u00ebl avait de bons et rapides renseignements locaux. Pour l\u2019Iran la base de Tadmor a l\u2019avantage d\u2019\u00eatre \u00e0 des centaines de km d\u2019Isra\u00ebl, alors que Damas est \u00e0 30 km. Et le Renseignement semblait plus difficile \u00e0 obtenir ; mais Tadmor a \u00e9t\u00e9 aussit\u00f4t bombard\u00e9\u2026 Des rumeurs parlent d\u2019un autre a\u00e9roport secret \u00e0 Alsin au sud de la Syrie, \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re Irako-jordano-syrienne\u2026 Cette zone est cruciale pour l\u2019Iran, car elle permet la continuit\u00e9 territoriale entre l\u2019Irak et la Syrie, et l\u2019acheminement ais\u00e9 d\u2019hommes et de mat\u00e9riel d\u2019Iran vers le Liban et le Hezbollah, bras important de la pieuvre iranienne. Le contr\u00f4le de cette voie fait de l\u2019Iran la puissance h\u00e9g\u00e9monique de la r\u00e9gion, allant de l\u2019Asie centrale \u00e0 la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Et tout cela devant les yeux ouverts des grandes puissances, des Etats-Unis et de la Russie, chacune ayant ses propres int\u00e9r\u00eats. Pour la Russie, il est important de contr\u00f4ler la zone c\u00f4ti\u00e8re alaouite o\u00f9 se trouvent ports et a\u00e9roports strat\u00e9giques et de consolider le r\u00e9gime des Assad dans ce but. Pour cela la Russie cherche \u00e0 d\u00e9truire les milices sunnites financ\u00e9es par l\u2019Arabie et les \u00e9mirats. Mais la Russie est prudente vis-\u00e0-vis de la Turquie qui se bat aussi bien contre les kurdes que contre les milices shiites et l\u2019Etat islamique sunnite\u2026. De ce fait, la Turquie est neutralis\u00e9e et ne peut lutter contre les Assad.<\/p>\n

Les Etats-Unis ont observ\u00e9 l\u2019avanc\u00e9e de l\u2019Iran au Moyen Orient, sans s\u2019y opposer s\u00e9rieusement du fait du choix de l\u2019ex-pr\u00e9sident Obama en faveur de l\u2019h\u00e9g\u00e9monie de l\u2019Iran shiite dans cette r\u00e9gion du \u00ab Mashreq \u00bb (orient), au d\u00e9triment de l\u2019Arabie, laissant \u00ab le Maghreb \u00bb \u00e0 la Sunna. Aujourd\u2019hui le pr\u00e9sident Trump est pr\u00e9occup\u00e9 par l\u2019\u00e9limination d\u00e9finitive de l\u2019Etat islamique qui est en bonne voie, mais qui prendra encore quelques mois. Il veut une d\u00e9faite totale du Califat d\u2019al Baghdadi pour dissuader toute vell\u00e9it\u00e9 nouvelle d\u2019\u00e9tat islamique. Il semble que dans l\u2019entourage de Trump, il y ait des experts qui estiment utile de remplir le vide laiss\u00e9 par l\u2019Etat Islamique par l\u2019Iran, plut\u00f4t que par le chaos. Il est probable qu\u2019un accord ait \u00e9t\u00e9 conclu avec la Russie pour laisser l\u2019Iran occuper cette zone d\u00e9sertique de la Syrie, pour \u00e9viter que l\u2019EI n\u2019y retourne.<\/p>\n

Mais il faut savoir aussi que les forces shiites qui ont envahi la Syrie (Iraniens, Irakiens, Libanais, Afghans) proc\u00e8dent depuis 4 ans \u00e0 un nettoyage ethnique des citoyens sunnites qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9ject\u00e9s dans des camps, leurs villages et leurs maisons ayant \u00e9t\u00e9 attribu\u00e9es \u00e0 des migrants shiites venant de Syrie, d\u2019Irak et d\u2019Afghanistan. Profitant des manoeuvres d\u2019Obama et des choix strat\u00e9giques de Trump, l\u2019Iran est de fait le principal gagnant de cette guerre civile syrienne. Personne ne pourra plus d\u00e9loger les forces iraniennes et affili\u00e9es du pays.<\/p>\n

Nous autres en Isra\u00ebl, en Europe et aux Etats-Unis nous devons nous habituer au fait que l\u2019Iran contr\u00f4le des territoires importants de 3 pays, l\u2019Irak, la Syrie et le Liban, ce qui relie ce pays par voie terrestre \u00e0 la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e. Ceci explique la d\u00e9contraction de Hassan Nasrallah vis-\u00e0-vis d\u2019Isra\u00ebl et du silence isra\u00e9lien devant cette avanc\u00e9e pleine de menaces.<\/p>\n

Il y a 2 ans, Isra\u00ebl pensait que le Hezbollah s\u2019\u00e9tait enlis\u00e9 en Syrie et ne mena\u00e7ait plus Isra\u00ebl. Aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019Iran est devenu le voisin imm\u00e9diat d\u2019Isra\u00ebl et le Hezbollah surarm\u00e9 fait partie de l\u2019arm\u00e9e iranienne, nich\u00e9e \u00e0 quelques km d\u2019Isra\u00ebl.<\/p>\n

Et les medias d\u2019Isra\u00ebl omettent de d\u00e9crire la situation des forces iraniennes en Syrie et les menaces imm\u00e9diates et \u00e0 terme. Personne ne dit que l\u2019Iran est le principal et v\u00e9ritable gagnant de la guerre civile en Syrie. Il est grand temps que le monde entier le sache <\/strong>!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iran has conquered Syria <\/strong><\/p>\n

by Dr. Mordechai Kedar<\/strong>, a senior lecturer in the Department of Arabic at Bar-Ilan University. He served in IDF Military Intelligence for 25 years, specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. Thoroughly familiar with Arab media in real time, he is frequently interviewed on the various news programs in Israel.
\nJune 30, 2017 – Written for Arutz Sheva, translated by Rochel Sylvetsky<\/p>\n

Source: <\/strong>http:\/\/www.israelnationalnews.com\/Articles\/Article.aspx\/20689 – <\/p>\n

Iran has emerged the victor in the Syrian civil war. And that bodes ill for the rest of us.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\nThe world has accepted the fact that Russian forces have been in Syria for the past two years and that Russia controls the Syrian coastline, its seaports and its two airbases. It has become used to having Hezbollah, the Shiite Lebanese militia, involved in the fighting in Syria and giving Assad much-needed support. Other Shiite militias, commanded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, are reported to have arrived from Iraq and Afghanistan. These forces sometimes endure losses on Syrian land, leaving the impression that Iran simply sent some Shiite gangs to fight Sunni gangs on Syrian soil. <\/p>\n

The real situation is totally different, because the Iranian forces in Syria are not gangs anymore, nor are they militias. They are an army by every existing definition of one. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are charged with building up Iranian forces in Syria, and they are a regular Iranian armed force, not a militia and certainly not a gang. An army. They have infantry, commando, tank, artillery, air force, intelligence and logistics units. This Iranian army’s presence has slowly evolved on Syrian soil over the last four years and it has done so under the radar of world media.<\/p>\n

The largest military offensive in Syria in which Iran’s army took part was freeing the northern city of Aleppo from Islamic State in 2016. Russia and Iran cooperated in the operation, with Russia bombing from the air and Iranian forces, along with Hezbollah and other Shiite militias, advancing on the ground and handing over control of conquered areas to Assad’s army.<\/p>\n

Iran has been expanding the area controlled by its forces since early 2017, encroaching upon the desert regions of central and southern Syria which were, until several months ago,  in the hands of the Sunni Islamic State (Daesh), the organization now fighting for its survival in three places: Mosul in Iraq, its capital city Raqqa in Syria and Dir A-Zur in eastern Syria. Once Mosul falls,into the hands of the Iranian Army, any day now, the other two cities will follow suit.<\/p>\n

Iran’s regular armed forces took advantage of the power vacuum created by Islamic State’s retreat to take over Syria’s central and eastern sparsely poulated desert regions. I estimate that Iran controls over 60% of Syria today, either directly – through its Revolutionary Guards – or indirectly, through Hezbollah and Shiite militias. <\/p>\n

Iran’s armed forces have several important bases in Syria that allow them complete freedom of movement. Most important of those is the Tadmor airfield in the center of the country, allowing Iran to fly in any military equipment it wishes to bring to Syria, mainly rockets and mortars but also other weapons. Israel is extremely concerned about this development and in March of this year attacked targets in the Tadmor region. The foreign press reported that the raid’s objective was an Iranian rocket storage facility.<\/p>\n

The entire story shows a basic change in the way Iran is running its affairs. Until recently, Iran used commercial flights to camouflage its arms transports, landing in the Damascus international airport, whille foreign press reports claimed that Israel repeatedly bombed storage facilities in the airport’s environs. Iran concluded that Israeli intelligence had enlisted Syrian citizens who work or live in proximity to the airport in order to obtain information in real time. Damascus is not far from Israel, allowing the IDF to operate effectively against objectives near the Syrian capital.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the Tadmor airfield is hundreds of kilometers from Israel.The area has few residents, making it harder for Israel to enlist people to pass on information. Israel, however, did bomb Tadmor, possibly having found another source of information. The war of the minds is being waged all the time, even though the public may be blissfully unaware of it.<\/p>\n

Reports have claimed that Iran is now using another airport, Alsin, in the Altanef region of southern Syria, near the three-country Syria-Iraq-Jordan border. There is a border crossing between Iraq and Syria nearby, control over which allows the Iranians to freely transport anything at all to Syria. Iranian activity along the Iraq-Syria border is meant to create a continguous land passage from Iran to Syria via Iraq, resulting in Iran being able to move its forces undisturbed all the way to Lebanon, already under Hezbollah’s control to all intents and purposes. Hezbollah is the Lebanese arm of the Iranian octopus, so that Iran is turning into a regional power whose forces control an enormous area, ranging from central Asia to the Mediterranean Sea.<\/p>\n

In this context, it is important to note that all this is happening under the watchful eys of two global powers, Russia and the United States, each concerned with its own interests. The Russian interest is clear: Russia wants to strenghthen Assad and destroy all the Sunni organizations fighting him with Saudi funding and guidance, in addition to other Sunni Arab countries including Turkey. Putin taught Erdogan a lesson and he is now more fearful of the Syrian Kurds than he is an enemy of Assad and his Iranian allies, making Erdogan an important link in the Russo-Iranian coalition supporting Assad.<\/p>\n

The US observed the growing strength of Iran in Syria over the past four years without initiating any serious attempt to stop it, unless one counts the recent downing of two drones, basically a light tap on Iran’s spreading wings. Up until January 2017 the US gave silent assent to Iran’s moves, because Obama wanted to empower Iran at the expense of the Saudis. He might have considered it preferable to give the Shiite Arabs and Iranians control of the \u00ab\u00a0Masrek\u00a0\u00bb, the name for the regions to the east of Israel, while the area from Egypt westward, known as the \u00ab\u00a0Maghreb,\u00a0\u00bb would be under Sunni control.<\/p>\n

Now that Trump is in the White House, the main goal of American activity in Syria is the elimination of Islamic State, aka Daesh. The US is busy creating \u00ab\u00a0moderate rebel\u00a0\u00bb forces and an alliance ith the Kurds who, helped by US air power, are charged with getting rid of Caliph Abu Bakr al Bagdadi and the state he established. The reason the US is concentrating on Daesh is the American fear, shared by Europe, that the terror-state model of Islamic State might seem like a successful one in Muslim eyes. That could lead to Islamic State clones in other parts of the world, including Europe, with the local Islamist public providing a support base.<\/p>\n

Trump did not see Iran’s growing power in Syria as a pressing issue. For example, the US did not initiate a meeting of the UN Security Council on the subject, even though the Security Council itself prohibited Iran from transferring weaponry out of its borders.  It’s quite possible that there are those in the US government who see the Iranian takeover of the Syrian desert as a positive development, preventing a vacuum that might lead to a problematic group, such as Islamic State, taking over instead.<\/p>\n

There might even be an understanding between Trump and the  Russians that allows Iran to take over central and eastern Syria in which Russia does not have any interest, keeping these regions from becoming a place of refuge for Daesh fighters. America learned about the problem from the Afghanistan debacle when after toppling the Taliban government in 2001, most of the territory was left  unprotected, allowing the Taliban to return to its hold over most of the country today. <\/p>\n

The coalition of Shiite forces that invaded Syria (Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Afghans) are carrying out ethnic cleansing against Sunni Syrian citizens, and in parts of the country have ejected Sunni residents in order to preempt their homes and villages for Shiite migrants from Syria, Iraq and Afganistan.<\/p>\n

This is how, maneuvering between Obama government’s purposeful intentions and Trump’s choice of objectives, Iran managed to become the clear victor in the Syrian war. No one in the world will succeed in removing the Iranian army from Syria, and we, in israel, Europe and the  US, will have to get used to the fact that Iran now includes large swathes of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Hezbollah in Lebanon is now connected to Iran by land, and that is the reason Hassan Nasrallah feels such confidence vis a vis Israel, and why Israel hesitates to build a concrete wall in its own territory to protect Israelis from Hezbollah snipers.<\/p>\n

Two years ago, when Syria was in the midst of falling apart, there were Israelis who claimed that Israel’s security situation had improved now that Syria was a threat no more and Hezbollah was stuck in the Syrian quagmire. Today it looks very different. Instead of Syria, we have Iran as our immediate neighbor. Hezbollah is no more an isolated terror group in Lebanon but an important arm of the Iranian entity, parked only a short distance from Israel’s border.<\/p>\n

Worst of all is the fact that Israel’s media, which reports from time to time on Iranian forces in Syria, does not show the larger, more threatening picture, the one that has developed from the Iranian line that connects the dots on the map of what was once Syria.<\/p>\n

Iran has emerged the great, ultimate victor of the civil war in Syria. The sooner we and the rest of the world realize this, the better off we and the rest of the world will be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019Iran a Conquis la Syrie L\u2019Iran \u00e9merge comme le gagnant de la guerre civile et ceci est de mauvaise augure pour nous tous.   Par Dr. Mordechai Kedar, professeur \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Bar Ilan, ex-agent du Renseignement militaire de Tsahal, sp\u00e9cialiste des questions arabes Traduit et adapt\u00e9 par Albert Soued \u00e9crivain, http:\/\/symbole.chez.com pour www.nuitdorient.com Source: http:\/\/www.israelnationalnews.com\/Articles\/Article.aspx\/20689… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nL\u2019Iran a Conquis la Syrie | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019Iran a Conquis la Syrie L\u2019Iran \u00e9merge comme le gagnant de la guerre civile et ceci est de mauvaise augure pour nous tous.   Par Dr. Mordechai\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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