{"id":58561,"date":"2017-09-26T16:54:06","date_gmt":"2017-09-26T16:54:06","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2017-09-26T16:54:06","modified_gmt":"2017-09-26T16:54:06","slug":"senatoriales-francaises-macron-rate-son-pari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/senatoriales-francaises-macron-rate-son-pari\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00e9natoriales fran\u00e7aises\u00a0: Macron rate son pari"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><u>S\u00e9natoriales fran\u00e7aises&nbsp;: Macron rate son pari<\/u> <u>(info # 012508\/17)<\/u> <u>[Analyse]<\/u><\/p>\n<p>Par Amram Castellion \u00a9 Metula News Agency<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"a0389230f7\"><\/a><a name=\"10b9e3d6ad\"><\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hier 24 septembre, la moiti\u00e9 des d\u00e9partements fran\u00e7ais \u00e9lisaient leurs s\u00e9nateurs, soit 171 des 348 s\u00e9nateurs \u00e9lus pour 6 ans (l\u2019autre moiti\u00e9 sera \u00e9lue ou r\u00e9\u00e9lue dans trois ans). Contrairement aux d\u00e9put\u00e9s \u00e9lus au suffrage universel direct, les s\u00e9nateurs sont \u00e9lus par un coll\u00e8ge \u00e9lectoral form\u00e9 de tous les \u00e9lus du d\u00e9partement (d\u00e9put\u00e9s et s\u00e9nateurs, conseillers r\u00e9gionaux, conseillers d\u00e9partementaux, conseillers municipaux).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Il y a encore quelques jours, le parti du pr\u00e9sident expliquait que le S\u00e9nat ne pouvait pas \u00e9chapper \u00e0 la profonde refondation politique lanc\u00e9e par Emmanuel Macron pour transformer la France. Hier, les grands \u00e9lecteurs \u2013 tous des \u00e9lus du peuple, qui passent leur vie \u00e0 \u00e9couter l\u2019opinion des Fran\u00e7ais et \u00e0 calculer comment se faire eux-m\u00eames r\u00e9\u00e9lire \u2013 ont massivement conclu que le discours pr\u00e9sidentiel ne pouvait pas \u00eatre pris au s\u00e9rieux.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Alors que Macron, apr\u00e8s son \u00e9lection \u00e0 l\u2019Elys\u00e9e, avait convaincu 29 s\u00e9nateurs (presque tous pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment socialistes) de rejoindre son parti et former un groupe&nbsp;macroniste au S\u00e9nat, le parti pr\u00e9sidentiel aura presque certainement un nombre r\u00e9duit d\u2019\u00e9lus dans la nouvelle assembl\u00e9e (entre 23 et 27). Ils n\u2019y seront que la quatri\u00e8me force politique, apr\u00e8s la droite (en forte progression, de 142 \u00e9lus dans la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente assembl\u00e9e \u00e0 environ 170 aujourd\u2019hui)&nbsp;; les socialistes (entre 67 et 71 s\u00e9nateurs) et les centristes (environ 50 si\u00e8ges).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Les principaux enseignements qui peuvent \u00eatre tir\u00e9s de cette monumentale d\u00e9faite du pr\u00e9sident&nbsp;sont les suivants.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>La classe politique ne croit pas que la remont\u00e9e r\u00e9cente de la popularit\u00e9 de Macron (45% dans le dernier sondage Ifop) soit le signe avant-coureur d\u2019une r\u00e9organisation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e de la carte politique en sa faveur. En effet, cette am\u00e9lioration de la popularit\u00e9 pr\u00e9sidentielle s\u2019est surtout faite parmi les \u00e9lecteurs de droite. Ceux-ci, s\u2019ils peuvent appr\u00e9cier le contenu de la r\u00e9forme du droit du travail et d\u2019autres projets du pr\u00e9sident, ne vont pas pour autant abandonner leur famille historique au jour du vote. Ils continuent \u00e0 faire confiance \u00e0 la droite pour conduire, le jour o\u00f9 elle reviendra au pouvoir, une politique de droite. Ils ne sont pas convaincus que Macron pourrait se substituer \u00e0 leurs partis traditionnels.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Le pr\u00e9sident a donc probablement d\u00e9finitivement \u00e9chou\u00e9 dans la moiti\u00e9, au moins, de sa strat\u00e9gie politique initiale. Celle-ci consistait \u00e0 rassembler autour de lui l\u2019ensemble des mod\u00e9r\u00e9s de droite et de gauche et \u00e0 ne laisser dans l\u2019opposition que les extr\u00e9mistes des deux bords.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Ce programme a parfaitement r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 gauche, o\u00f9 le parti socialiste s\u2019est d\u00e9sint\u00e9gr\u00e9 entre une aile gestionnaire, dont la plus grande partie a rejoint Macron, et une aile r\u00e9volutionnaire, qui est venu grossir les rangs de l\u2019extr\u00eame-gauche m\u00e9lenchonienne.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A droite, en revanche, malgr\u00e9 les gestes tr\u00e8s importants du pr\u00e9sident vers la droite mod\u00e9r\u00e9e \u2013 nomination d\u2019un Premier ministre et de plusieurs ministres issus de ses rangs, premi\u00e8res r\u00e9formes centr\u00e9es sur des priorit\u00e9s de droite (droit du travail, programmes scolaires) \u2013 seule une minorit\u00e9 a rejoint le pr\u00e9sident. La grande majorit\u00e9 des structures traditionnelles tient bon. Il faut dire que la droite mod\u00e9r\u00e9e a aujourd\u2019hui une opportunit\u00e9 historique qui devrait la retenir de franchir le pas&nbsp;: l\u2019affaiblissement brutal et inattendu du Front National a cr\u00e9\u00e9 sur sa droite une immense r\u00e9serve de voix qui, d\u00e9\u00e7ues et d\u00e9sabus\u00e9es d\u2019avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 tromp\u00e9es par la famille Le Pen pendant trente ans, pourraient \u00eatre pr\u00eates \u00e0 revenir vers la droite classique si celle-ci lui fait les avances n\u00e9cessaires.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>La r\u00e9forme des institutions que souhaitait Macron est d\u00e9sormais, presque certainement, morte et enterr\u00e9e. Le pr\u00e9sident voulait r\u00e9duire d\u2019un tiers le nombre des parlementaires et introduire une dose de proportionnelle \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale. Il lui faudrait pour cela une majorit\u00e9 de trois cinqui\u00e8mes des parlementaires, soit 555 d\u00e9put\u00e9s et s\u00e9nateurs. Mais aujourd\u2019hui, le nombre total des parlementaires de son parti et du parti centriste alli\u00e9 Modem n\u2019est que de 375 environ. On ne voit pas dans quelle configuration un pr\u00e9sident affaibli par les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019hier pourrait obtenir les 180 ralliements n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 cette r\u00e9forme.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Les premiers indices ne semblent pas montrer que le camp macronien ait pris la mesure de la signification de sa d\u00e9faite. Le nouveau pr\u00e9sident du groupe macronien au S\u00e9nat, Fran\u00e7ois Patriat (un homme de 75 ans qui fut \u00e9lu socialiste pendant 40 ans et appelle maintenant \u00e0 la \u00ab&nbsp;disparition du monde ancien&nbsp;\u00bb) a couru hier soir les plateaux t\u00e9l\u00e9vis\u00e9s pour ironiser sur des grands \u00e9lecteurs qui auraient \u00ab&nbsp;vot\u00e9 pour leur boutique&nbsp;\u00bb et ne comprendraient pas l\u2019importance historique de l\u2019av\u00e8nement du macronisme. Ce genre d\u2019attitude, si elle refl\u00e8te celle du camp macronien dans son ensemble, est la meilleure mani\u00e8re pour faire en sorte que les Fran\u00e7ais finissent par d\u00e9cider de faire de cet av\u00e8nement une parenth\u00e8se sans cons\u00e9quence.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Pour autant, l\u2019essentiel du programme de r\u00e9formes du pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9publique n\u2019est pas imm\u00e9diatement menac\u00e9. Apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9forme du Code du travail, d\u00e9j\u00e0 act\u00e9e, le gouvernement doit pr\u00e9parer une r\u00e9forme fiscale (transfert des recettes des cotisations sociales vers la <a href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Contribution_sociale_g%C3%A9n%C3%A9ralis%C3%A9e\">CSG<\/a>), une r\u00e9forme de l\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage, une r\u00e9forme des retraites et une r\u00e9forme du statut de la SNCF. Or la d\u00e9faite d\u2019hier aux s\u00e9natoriales ne r\u00e9duit en rien la capacit\u00e9 du gouvernement \u00e0 mener ces r\u00e9formes. D\u2019une part, il conserve la majorit\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale, qui a le dernier mot en cas de d\u00e9saccord avec le S\u00e9nat. D\u2019autre part, une partie importante de ce programme a l\u2019assentiment \u2013 au moins sur les principes \u2013 de la droite qui domine d\u00e9sormais l\u2019opposition.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>La d\u00e9faite d\u2019hier ne marquera donc probablement pas de temps d\u2019arr\u00eat dans la mise en \u0153uvre du programme du pr\u00e9sident. Mais elle a montr\u00e9 aux Fran\u00e7ais que Macron n\u2019est pas, apr\u00e8s tout, ce magicien de la politique \u00e0 qui rien ne r\u00e9siste pour lequel il aime \u00e0 se prendre. Il fera, on l\u2019esp\u00e8re, un travail utile de r\u00e9forme technocratique pour am\u00e9liorer la situation du pays. Mais ses pr\u00e9tentions \u00e0 passer pour une figure transformative de l\u2019histoire mondiale ne peuvent plus \u00eatre prises au s\u00e9rieux par personne.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00e9natoriales fran\u00e7aises&nbsp;: Macron rate son pari (info # 012508\/17) [Analyse] Par Amram Castellion \u00a9 Metula News Agency &nbsp; Hier 24 septembre, la moiti\u00e9 des d\u00e9partements fran\u00e7ais \u00e9lisaient leurs s\u00e9nateurs, soit 171 des 348 s\u00e9nateurs \u00e9lus pour 6 ans (l\u2019autre moiti\u00e9 sera \u00e9lue ou r\u00e9\u00e9lue dans trois ans). Contrairement aux d\u00e9put\u00e9s \u00e9lus au suffrage universel direct,&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":58562,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S\u00e9natoriales fran\u00e7aises\u00a0: Macron rate son pari | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S\u00e9natoriales fran\u00e7aises&nbsp;: Macron rate son pari (info # 012508\/17) Par Amram Castellion \u00a9 Metula News Agency &nbsp; 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