{"id":60485,"date":"2018-09-02T17:16:16","date_gmt":"2018-09-02T17:16:16","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2018-09-02T17:16:16","modified_gmt":"2018-09-02T17:16:16","slug":"turquie-derives-et-perspectives-economiques-par-david-bensoussan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/turquie-derives-et-perspectives-economiques-par-david-bensoussan\/","title":{"rendered":"Turquie : derives et perspectives economiques, par David Bensoussan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Turquie : d\u00e9rives et perspectives \u00e9conomiques<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

David Bensoussan<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019auteur est professeur de sciences \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Les succ\u00e8s \u00e9conomiques de la Turquie depuis 2002 ont contribu\u00e9 aux succ\u00e8s \u00e9lectoraux du pr\u00e9sident Erdogan par le pass\u00e9. Or, aux derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections tenues en 2018, les indices \u00e9conomiques \u00e9taient pr\u00e9occupants. Erdogan a su jouer sur la corde sensible turque de la fiert\u00e9 nationale, a subjugu\u00e9 les esprits avec les th\u00e9ories conspirationnistes en fustigeant \u00ab l\u2019islamophobie \u00bb des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s occidentales <\/span><\/span><\/strong>et a jou\u00e9 \u00e0 fond la carte islamique sur un arri\u00e8re-plan de rappel de la grandeur ottomane du pass\u00e9. Cette approche nationale-islamiste s\u2019est av\u00e9r\u00e9e payante. Le gouvernement qui contr\u00f4le plus de 90% des m\u00e9dias a jou\u00e9 de l\u2019influence qu\u2019il a sur tous les plans pour assurer sa victoire.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Telle une peau de chagrin, la libert\u00e9 d\u2019expression dans les m\u00e9dias turcs continue de se r\u00e9duire. La d\u00e9mocratie n\u2019est plus qu\u2019un slogan : on parlerait plut\u00f4t de d\u00e9mocratie illib\u00e9rale ou de \u00ab d\u00e9mocratie autoritaire\u00bb\u2026 Le pr\u00e9sident Erdogan a inaugur\u00e9 son mandat en licenciant 18 000 fonctionnaires qui s\u2019ajoutent aux 150 000 autres d\u00e9j\u00e0 licenci\u00e9s et \u00e0 l\u2019emprisonnement de 50 000 personnes depuis le putsch rat\u00e9 en 2016. Il demeure pr\u00e9sident de son parti et peut maintenant \u00e9mettre des d\u00e9crets qui font fi du parlement et poursuivre sa politique \u00e9conomique malgr\u00e9 les indices alarmants. Erdogan s\u2019immisce r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement dans les d\u00e9cisions de la Banque centrale et refuse de hausser les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour r\u00e9guler le march\u00e9.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Le dossier \u00e9conomique<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Avec une moyenne d\u2019inflation de 15%, une dette de 200 milliards, des r\u00e9serves en devise se montant \u00e0 26 milliards, et une monnaie qui se d\u00e9pr\u00e9cie s\u00e9rieusement, Erdogan ne pourra plus continuer le boom de construction et les m\u00e9gaprojets tels que celui du canal Istanbul, l\u2019acquisition planifi\u00e9e de 19 centrales nucl\u00e9aires ainsi que des achats majeurs dans le domaine de la d\u00e9fense. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les investissements \u00e9trangers ont afflu\u00e9 lorsque les n\u00e9gociations visant l\u2019adh\u00e9sion de la Turquie \u00e0 l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne ont \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9es. L\u2019augmentation du PNB de 6,8% durant la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie \u00e9tait prometteuse. Or, la Turquie s\u2019est \u00e9loign\u00e9e de la voie des r\u00e9formes d\u00e9mocratiques et lib\u00e9rales dans laquelle elle avait promis de s\u2019engager. L\u2019image de la Turquie a chang\u00e9 pour le pire. La d\u00e9valuation de la lire et le manque de confiance en  l\u2019avenir de la Turquie sous Erdogan a consid\u00e9rablement ralenti les investissements \u00e9trangers. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La confrontation avec les \u00c9tats-Unis<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Les relations avec les \u00c9tats-Unis se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent : Erdogan ne cache pas qu\u2019il est pr\u00eat \u00e0 \u00e9changer le pasteur am\u00e9ricain Brunson contre l\u2019extradition en Turquie du pr\u00e9dicateur turc Fethullah G\u00fclen<\/span><\/em> <\/i>qui r\u00e9side aux \u00c9tats-Unis. L\u2019administration am\u00e9ricaine a fait savoir que la lib\u00e9ration du pasteur am\u00e9ricain Brunson n\u2019\u00e9tait pas n\u00e9gociable.<\/i><\/b> Trump a annonc\u00e9 qu\u2019il doublait les taxes douani\u00e8res sur l\u2019aluminium et l\u2019acier de Turquie. Cette mesure de port\u00e9e relativement mineure a suffi pour faire chuter la lire turque de 16,8% au mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt alors qu\u2019elle avait accus\u00e9 une baisse de 23,5% par rapport au dollar US depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Erdogan proclame : \u00ab Ils ont le dollar, nous avons le droit et Allah. \u00bb <\/span><\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span>Il menace <\/i>l\u2019Am\u00e9rique de sanctions, voire de changer d\u2019amis et d\u2019alliances, mais rien n\u2019y fait. <\/span><\/span><\/span>La justice am\u00e9ricaine refuse de laisser tomber l\u2019enqu\u00eate sur les transactions interdites avec l\u2019Iran par la banque d\u2019\u00c9tat Halkbank, susceptible d\u2019\u00e9coper de plusieurs milliards de dollars d\u2019amende. Erdogan s\u2019en prend au pr\u00e9sum\u00e9 complot contre la Turquie et r\u00e9it\u00e8re sa demande aux citoyens de se d\u00e9barrasser de leurs devises \u00e9trang\u00e8res. Mais le vrai test viendra en novembre lorsque les sanctions am\u00e9ricaines contre les importations de p\u00e9trole iranien prendront effet. L\u2019enjeu des importations de gaz et de p\u00e9trole (90% des besoins de la Turquie) p\u00e8se lourd : 50% du gaz iranien est vendu \u00e0 la Turquie et les mesures am\u00e9ricaines contre les pays qui commercent avec l\u2019Iran devraient affecter la Turquie. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La fin de la croissance \u00e9conomique<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Les compagnies turques et les banques ont emprunt\u00e9 respectivement pr\u00e8s de 300 milliards et 150 milliards de dollars qu\u2019elles doivent rembourser avec une lire turque d\u00e9pr\u00e9ci\u00e9e. Aujourd\u2019hui, le taux de ch\u00f4mage est de 11% et atteint 25% des jeunes. L<\/span><\/span><\/span>a balance courante est d\u00e9ficitaire de 50 milliards, soit 5% du PNB. <\/span><\/span><\/span>L\u2019investissement de 15 milliards promis par le Qatar ne suffira gu\u00e8re pour d\u00e9samorcer la r\u00e9gression de l\u2019\u00e9conomie turque. En outre, la d\u00e9valuation importante de la lire turque a affect\u00e9 les \u00e9conomies des pays \u00e9mergents (Argentine, Afrique du Sud et Inde) car ils s\u2019attendent \u00e0 des taux d\u2019emprunt plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019unique porte de sortie serait peut-\u00eatre l\u2019achat partiel de la dette par la Chine et un plus grand alignement sur la Russie, ce qui impliquerait une reddition totale de l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9conomique et politique turque. Elle signifierait \u00e9galement une disruption sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent de la production et des exportations de l\u2019industrie turque (dont l\u2019industrie de l\u2019armement) qui d\u00e9pendent de technologies am\u00e9ricaines. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Le temp\u00e9rament autoritaire et conflictuel du pr\u00e9sident Erdogan ne se d\u00e9ment pas et ne laisse pas entrevoir de changement de cap si tant n\u00e9cessaire. Par le pass\u00e9, la Russie et l\u2019Allemagne avaient impos\u00e9 des sanctions contre la Turquie mais le dossier avait \u00e9t\u00e9 partiellement r\u00e9gl\u00e9 dans les coulisses diplomatiques pour sauver les apparences. L\u2019attitude tranch\u00e9e et publique du pr\u00e9sident Trump ne laisse pas de place \u00e0 la diplomatie. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les difficult\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques de la Turquie ne font que commencer.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Turquie : d\u00e9rives et perspectives \u00e9conomiques David Bensoussan L\u2019auteur est professeur de sciences \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec   Les succ\u00e8s \u00e9conomiques de la Turquie depuis 2002 ont contribu\u00e9 aux succ\u00e8s \u00e9lectoraux du pr\u00e9sident Erdogan par le pass\u00e9. Or, aux derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections tenues en 2018, les indices \u00e9conomiques \u00e9taient pr\u00e9occupants. Erdogan a su jouer sur la… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60486,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nTurquie : derives et perspectives economiques, par David Bensoussan | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Turquie : d\u00e9rives et perspectives \u00e9conomiques David Bensoussan L\u2019auteur est professeur de sciences \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec   Les succ\u00e8s \u00e9conomiques\" \/>\n<meta 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