{"id":63367,"date":"2020-03-15T18:19:41","date_gmt":"2020-03-15T18:19:41","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-03-15T18:19:41","modified_gmt":"2020-03-15T18:19:41","slug":"pour-stopper-le-coronavirus-il-faut-diviser-par-quatre-nos-interactions-sociales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/pour-stopper-le-coronavirus-il-faut-diviser-par-quatre-nos-interactions-sociales\/","title":{"rendered":"Pour stopper le coronavirus, il faut diviser par quatre nos interactions sociales"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pour stopper le coronavirus, il faut diviser par quatre nos interactions sociales<\/p>\n<p>Quand chaque personne touch\u00e9e contamine moins d\u2019une personne en moyenne, la propagation du virus ne peut que ralentir Avec 2500 cas d\u2019infection au coronavirus identifi\u00e9s en France et 48 morts, il peut para\u00eetre surprenant de prime abord de voir tant de sp\u00e9cialistes s\u2019alarmer d\u2019une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie <em>\u00abin\u00e9luctable\u00bb, \u00abinarr\u00eatable\u00bb<\/em>, dont on promet d\u00e9j\u00e0 qu\u2019elle \u00e9tranglera le syst\u00e8me hospitalier et pourrait repr\u00e9senter une catastrophe sanitaire de tr\u00e8s grande ampleur.<\/p>\n<p>Ce serait m\u00e9conna\u00eetre la science \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique. \u00ab<em>Lorsqu\u2019on est au stade o\u00f9 nous sommes en France, une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie devient tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9dictible<\/em>\u00bb, rappelle en effet Samuel Alizon, chercheur CNRS au laboratoire Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs: \u00e9cologie, g\u00e9n\u00e9tique, \u00e9volution et contr\u00f4le de Montpellier. En l\u2019occurrence, une propagation exponentielle du virus dans toutes les couches de la population et sur tout le territoire jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019une partie suffisamment importante ait \u00e9t\u00e9 contamin\u00e9e et soit ainsi immunis\u00e9e. Les sp\u00e9cialistes estiment que cela arrive lorsque 15 \u00e0 20 % des personnes ont \u00e9t\u00e9 touch\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-s6jpj4 ekabp3u0\">Soit 10 millions de personnes infect\u00e9es pour la France, repr\u00e9sentant 50.000 \u00e0 100.000 morts potentiels d\u2019apr\u00e8s la l\u00e9talit\u00e9 estim\u00e9e du virus (0,5 % \u00e0 1 %). Et ce dans le cas favorable o\u00f9 les h\u00f4pitaux ne sont pas satur\u00e9s. Dans le cas contraire le taux de mortalit\u00e9 pourrait \u00eatre bien plus \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Mais les \u00e9pid\u00e9miologistes savent aussi que ce sc\u00e9nario catastrophe peut \u00eatre \u00e9vit\u00e9. Il faut pour cela que des mesures efficaces soient prises pour limiter la propagation du virus. En termes \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiques, il faut r\u00e9ussir \u00e0 limiter son \u00abtaux de reproduction\u00bb, not\u00e9 R0 (R z\u00e9ro). Ce param\u00e8tre quantifie le nombre moyen de personnes qui sont infect\u00e9es par une personne contamin\u00e9e pendant toute la p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 elle est contagieuse. Les sp\u00e9cialistes estiment qu\u2019il est proche de 3 en France aujourd\u2019hui pour le coronavirus. <em>\u00abPour stopper l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, il faut ramener ce taux en dessous de 1\u00bb<\/em>, d\u00e9crypte Samuel Alizon. Quand chaque personne touch\u00e9e contamine moins d\u2019une personne en moyenne, la propagation du virus ne peut que ralentir<em>. \u00abDe mani\u00e8re intuitive, on comprend que si tout le monde sans exception divise par quatre son nombre d\u2019interactions sociales, on peut franchir ce seuil, et faire descendre R0 en dessous de 1.\u00bb<\/em> C\u2019est exactement ce que la Chine a fait, pla\u00e7ant en quarantaine forc\u00e9e des millions de personnes.<\/p>\n<p>Faire baisser le R0 Une mesure impensable en France. Il faut donc en appeler au civisme de chacun. Raison pour laquelle le gouvernement incite depuis plusieurs jours les Fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 limiter leurs d\u00e9placements, \u00e0 favoriser le t\u00e9l\u00e9travail et a interdit les rassemblements de plus de 5000 personnes, puis de 1000 personnes, sur tout le territoire, voire 50 dans les zones les plus touch\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-0 e1hoox4t0\">\n<div class=\"hide-print css-1qqiqut edq521w5\">\n<div class=\"css-p6x5fy e9jpgo00\"><video-js aria-label=\"Video Player\" class=\"video-js vjs-controls-enabled vjs-workinghover vjs-v7 vjs-layout-medium bc-player-4k4QmRz5g_default bc-player-4k4QmRz5g_default-index-0 vjs-mouse vjs-vpaid-controls-disabled vjs-ima3-html5 vjs-dock vjs-plugins-ready vjs-ad-controls vjs-contextmenu vjs-contextmenu-ui vjs-player-info vjs-errors vjs-quality-menu vjs-has-started vjs-user-inactive vjs-paused\" data-account=\"610043537001\" data-embed=\"default\" data-player=\"4k4QmRz5g\" data-video-id=\"6141075173001\" id=\"vjs_video_3\" lang=\"fr\" muted=\"true\" role=\"region\" tabindex=\"-1\"><\/video-js><\/div>\n<p>Si chacun faisait l\u2019effort personnel de se confiner au maximum, de r\u00e9duire ses sorties et ses interactions amicales et familiales, il serait possible de contenir l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. Que vous soyez malades ou non, que vous ayez ou non \u00e9t\u00e9 en contact avec des personnes \u00e0 risques importe peu. C\u2019est l\u2019affaire de tous. <em>\u00abC\u2019est une dynamique de population, un effort collectif \u00e0 produire\u00bb<\/em>, souligne Samuel Alizon. Toutes les mesures \u00abbarri\u00e8res\u00bb (ne pas se faire la bise ou se serrer la main, tousser dans son coude, se laver les mains r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement, etc.) ont le m\u00eame objectif: faire baisser ce fameux R0. Le port d\u2019un masque lorsqu\u2019on pense \u00eatre malade est aussi tr\u00e8s efficace.<\/p>\n<p>Comment faire pour que les recommandations soient r\u00e9ellement suivies par l\u2019ensemble des Fran\u00e7ais? Sans cr\u00e9er de panique? Cette \u00e9quation-l\u00e0 est bien plus difficile \u00e0 r\u00e9soudre. Il est pourtant urgent d\u2019agir. Une \u00e9tude parue le 11 mars dans<em> The Lancet<\/em> montre qu\u2019il a fallu deux semaines en Chine pour que le taux de reproduction du virus soit r\u00e9duit de moiti\u00e9 apr\u00e8s les mesures drastiques de confinement.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019autre part, les 2500 cas identifi\u00e9s en France ne repr\u00e9sentent que la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l\u2019iceberg. Comme le virus provoque peu ou pas de sympt\u00f4mes chez 80 % des personnes infect\u00e9es (qui sont pourtant contagieuses) des dizaines de milliers de Fran\u00e7ais sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 en train de transmettre le virus, le plus souvent sans s\u2019en rendre compte, sur tout le territoire. La course contre la montre est d\u00e9j\u00e0 lanc\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pour stopper le coronavirus, il faut diviser par quatre nos interactions sociales Quand chaque personne touch\u00e9e contamine moins d\u2019une personne en moyenne, la propagation du virus ne peut que ralentir Avec 2500 cas d\u2019infection au coronavirus identifi\u00e9s en France et 48 morts, il peut para\u00eetre surprenant de prime abord de voir tant de sp\u00e9cialistes s\u2019alarmer&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":63368,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pour stopper le coronavirus, il faut diviser par quatre nos interactions sociales | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pour stopper le coronavirus, il faut diviser par quatre nos interactions 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