{"id":66571,"date":"2022-02-27T17:29:14","date_gmt":"2022-02-27T17:29:14","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2022-02-27T17:29:14","modified_gmt":"2022-02-27T17:29:14","slug":"lequilibre-mondial-remis-en-question-david-bensoussan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/lequilibre-mondial-remis-en-question-david-bensoussan\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019\u00e9quilibre mondial remis en question – David Bensoussan"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u2019\u00e9quilibre mondial remis en question<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

David Bensoussan<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019auteur est professeur de sciences \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Le pr\u00e9sident Biden a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que les man\u0153uvres russes aux fronti\u00e8res de l\u2019Ukraine sont le facteur le plus lourd de cons\u00e9quences depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. \u00c9tudier les tractations g\u00e9opolitiques qui ont men\u00e9 \u00e0 la conf\u00e9rence de Yalta et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9quilibre mondial qui s\u2019est maintenu tant bien que mal jusqu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019implosion de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique permet de jeter certains \u00e9clairages sur les ambitions sovi\u00e9tiques durant la Seconde Guerre mondiale et les ambitions russes actuelles.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Vers la conf\u00e9rence de Yalta<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

3 septembre 1939 : l\u2019Angleterre et la France d\u00e9clarent la guerre \u00e0 l\u2019Allemagne apr\u00e8s que celle-ci ait envahi la Pologne. Le blitzkrieg allemand laisse la France exsangue. \u00c0 Dunkerque, les troupes alli\u00e9es se replient vers l\u2019Angleterre dans un d\u00e9sordre cauchemaresque. Envers et contre tout, l\u2019Angleterre tiendra bon contre l\u2019ennemi nazi.  <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

22 Juin 1941 : 3 millions de troupes, 3000 tanks (op\u00e9ration Barbarossa) , 000 pi\u00e8ces d\u2019artillerie et 2500 avions attaquent l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique sur trois fronts, malgr\u00e9 le pacte de non-agression germano-sovi\u00e9tique du 23 ao\u00fbt 1939. L\u2019histoire se rejoue comme au temps de l\u2019invasion napol\u00e9onienne. Staline pratique la politique de la terre br\u00fbl\u00e9e et consolide son arm\u00e9e opposant graduellement 350 divisions aux 150 divisions allemandes. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

7 d\u00e9cembre 1941 : le Japon qui est alli\u00e9 aux forces germano-italiennes de l\u2019Axe attaque la flotte am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 Pearl Harbour. L\u2019Am\u00e9rique entre en guerre et met \u00e0 la disposition des alli\u00e9s des v\u00e9hicules et des armements. Son intervention va changer le cours de l\u2019histoire. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

14 Janvier 1943 : lors de la conf\u00e9rence de Casablanca, Roosevelt et de Gaulle s\u2019engagent \u00e0 exiger une capitulation inconditionnelle de l\u2019Allemagne.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

28 novembre 1943 : les trois grands, Churchill, Roosevelt et Staline se rencontrent \u00e0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran. Au moment de la rencontre, l\u2019Afrique du Nord est prise par les Alli\u00e9s (op\u00e9ration Torch<\/i>) et 250 000 troupes de l\u2018Axe sont d\u00e9faites. La campagne d\u2019Italie est commenc\u00e9e et l\u2019Allemagne y consacre 18 divisions. La victoire sovi\u00e9tique \u00e0 Stalingrad qui a co\u00fbt\u00e9 la vie \u00e0 800 000 Sovi\u00e9tiques s\u2019est conclue par la reddition de 400 000 militaires de l\u2019Axe le 2 f\u00e9vrier 1943.  L\u2019expansion allemande \u00e0 l\u2019Est est frein\u00e9e. La victoire sovi\u00e9tique est devenue in\u00e9vitable.  <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Churchill voulait avant tout sauver l\u2019Angleterre et son empire. Il \u00e9tait toujours conscient du danger que pouvait repr\u00e9senter une Union sovi\u00e9tique qui dominerait l\u2019Europe orientale. Il pr\u00e9conisait d\u2019attaquer l\u2019Afrique du Nord et retarder le d\u00e9barquement pour plus d\u2019une raison : les \u00c9tats-Unis n\u2019\u00e9taient pas encore pr\u00eats pour un d\u00e9barquement massif ; le bataillon canadien de 5000 personnes qui d\u00e9barqua \u00e0 Amiens fut d\u00e9cim\u00e9 \u00e0 70% ce qui promettait une campagne militaire implacable contre l\u2019Allemagne ; il voulait tenir les Sovi\u00e9tiques \u00e0 distance de la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e et souhaitait que les troupes alli\u00e9es et sovi\u00e9tiques se serrent la main le plus \u00e0 l\u2019Est possible. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Staline \u00e9tait un politicien cynique. La crise de famine qui fit des millions de morts dont 4 millions d\u2019Ukrainiens servit \u00e0 imposer un r\u00e9gime de terreur inhumain. La vie humaine importait peu dans sa logique de fin qui justifie les moyens. Durant la Seconde Guerre mondiale, il envoya au front des centaines de milliers de paysans difficilement arm\u00e9s, n\u2019en fit pas cas pour les remplacer par d\u2019autres vagues de centaines de milliers d\u2019autres. Les pertes de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique sont estim\u00e9es \u00e0 20 millions de personnes, ou m\u00eame 27 millions selon certains experts. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Staline visait la reconqu\u00eate de son pays et convoitait la domination des \u00e9tats baltes, de la Bessarabie et de la Pologne dont il s\u2019\u00e9tait appropri\u00e9 une grande partie apr\u00e8s la ratification de l\u2019accord germano-sovi\u00e9tique de 1939. En arri\u00e8re-plan, il souhaitait \u00e9tendre l\u2019influence communiste en Europe et ailleurs. Il insista pour que le d\u00e9barquement alli\u00e9 commence au plus t\u00f4t, car seulement 30 divisions allemandes se trouvaient en poste \u00e0 l\u2019Ouest, \u00e0 comparer \u00e0 270 \u00e0 l\u2019Est. Mais le d\u00e9barquement alli\u00e9 en Normandie ne se tint que le 6 juin 1944 (op\u00e9ration Overload<\/i>). 156 000 soldats alli\u00e9s y prirent part.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, Roosevelt souhaitait que l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique d\u00e9clare la guerre au Japon, ce qu\u2019elle fit en 1945, s\u2019emparant de la p\u00e9ninsule de Sakhaline et des iles Kouriles. Au cours de la guerre, le nombre de divisions militaires am\u00e9ricaines passa de 39 en 1941 \u00e0 95 en 1943. Roosevelt investit 30 % des forces militaires contre le Japon et 70% en Europe et Churchill usa de toute son influence pour que ce ratio ne change pas.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

4 f\u00e9vrier 1945 : la conf\u00e9rence de Yalta r\u00e9unit les trois grands qui d\u00e9cident de l\u2019avenir de l\u2019Europe lib\u00e9r\u00e9e.  L\u2019ancrage de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique dans les pays de l\u2019Europe de l\u2019Est est amorc\u00e9 et l\u2019arm\u00e9e sovi\u00e9tique se trouve \u00e0 50 km de Berlin. La France est lib\u00e9r\u00e9e. La lib\u00e9ration des pays de l\u2019Europe de l\u2019Ouest est en cours. Les 72 divisions allemandes en Europe occidentale fl\u00e9chissent et les arm\u00e9es alli\u00e9es commencent \u00e0 investir l\u2019Allemagne.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Hier la Pologne, aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019Ukraine. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

\u00c0 T\u00e9h\u00e9ran puis \u00e0 Yalta, Roosevelt a pratiquement laiss\u00e9 la Pologne entre les mains des Sovi\u00e9tiques, comptant sur une promesse solennelle de Staline d\u2019\u00e9tablir des d\u00e9mocraties dans les pays lib\u00e9r\u00e9s qui deviendraient souverains. Na\u00efvet\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine ou bien admission de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de terrain ?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La Pologne fut divis\u00e9e entre l\u2019Allemagne et l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique en 1939. Staline fit ex\u00e9cuter 22 000 officiers polonais \u00e0 Katyn en avril 1940. L\u2019Arm\u00e9e rouge ne vint pas au secours des Polonais durant l\u2019insurrection de Varsovie alors soumise \u00e0 un bombardement allemand impitoyable du 1\u00e9 ao\u00fbt au 2 octobre 1944.  Apr\u00e8s la guerre, la fronti\u00e8re polonaise fut d\u00e9plac\u00e9e de 300 km en moyenne \u00e0 l\u2019Ouest et la Pologne re\u00e7ut en \u00e9change des territoires allemands vid\u00e9s de leurs habitants. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Des \u00e9lections accompagn\u00e9es de nombreuses irr\u00e9gularit\u00e9s se tinrent le 19 janvier 1947 et la Pologne bascula dans le camp communiste. Le coup d\u2019\u00c9tat communiste en Tch\u00e9coslovaquie le 17 f\u00e9vrier 1948 aboutit \u00e0 un r\u00e9gime communiste. L\u2019Ouest ne r\u00e9agit pas. Depuis, l\u2019\u00e9quilibre entre les superpuissances a maintenu une certaine stabilit\u00e9 mondiale. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Lors du d\u00e9mant\u00e8lement de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique en 1991, le secr\u00e9taire d\u2019\u00c9tat Jim Baker fit une promesse au pr\u00e9sident russe Gorbatchev, \u00e0 savoir que l\u2019OTAN n\u2019incorporerait pas les pays de l\u2019Europe de l\u2019Est. Or, apr\u00e8s la dissolution de l\u2019empire sovi\u00e9tique, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique a continu\u00e9 d\u2019agir tout comme si elle voulait mettre \u00e0 l\u2019\u0153uvre le plan Unthinkable<\/i> du premier ministre Churchill qui voulait repousser les arm\u00e9es russes \u00e0 l\u2019Est en 1945. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les pays qui  firent autrefois partie de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique et qui ont opt\u00e9 pour l\u2019Occident et ses valeurs furent int\u00e9gr\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019OTAN entre 1999 et 2020 : les pays du pacte de Varsovie ainsi que des pays qui firent partie de la Yougoslavie. <\/span>La pr\u00e9sence de troupes russes en G\u00e9orgie et en Ukraine emp\u00eache ces pays de continuer leurs d\u00e9marches en vue d\u2019une int\u00e9gration \u00e0 l’OTAN.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019ordre mondial a chang\u00e9 et la Russie n\u2019a pas particip\u00e9 au nouvel ordre. Le pr\u00e9sident Poutine essaie de faire marche arri\u00e8re, quitte \u00e0 recourir \u00e0 des propagandes et des agissements qui \u00e9voquent l\u2019\u00e8re sovi\u00e9tique. La souffrance qu\u2019il inflige aux Ukrainiens lui importe peu.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019\u00e9quilibre mondial remis en question David Bensoussan L\u2019auteur est professeur de sciences \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec   Le pr\u00e9sident Biden a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que les man\u0153uvres russes aux fronti\u00e8res de l\u2019Ukraine sont le facteur le plus lourd de cons\u00e9quences depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. \u00c9tudier les tractations g\u00e9opolitiques qui ont men\u00e9 \u00e0 la conf\u00e9rence de Yalta… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nL\u2019\u00e9quilibre mondial remis en question - 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