{"id":67607,"date":"2022-11-27T21:59:26","date_gmt":"2022-11-27T21:59:26","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2022-11-27T21:59:26","modified_gmt":"2022-11-27T21:59:26","slug":"compte-a-rebours-iranien-par-david-bensoussan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/compte-a-rebours-iranien-par-david-bensoussan\/","title":{"rendered":"Compte \u00e0 rebours iranien, par David Bensoussan"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"article-header\">\n<p class=\"headline\">Compte \u00e0 rebours iranien<\/p>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"block cols4\">\n<div class=\"article-content\">\n<p>La reprise des n\u00e9gociations des 5 +1 sur le nucl\u00e9aire iranien \u00e0 Vienne a patin\u00e9 et pour cause&nbsp;: c\u2019est l\u2019Iran qui en derni\u00e8re minute a ajout\u00e9 des conditions impossibles, torpillant ainsi les n\u00e9gociations.<\/p>\n<p>En effet, cesser de reconna\u00eetre les Gardiens de la r\u00e9volution iraniens comme une entit\u00e9 terroriste et limiter les sites auxquels l\u2019Agence internationale de l\u2019\u00e9nergie atomique aurait acc\u00e8s, c\u2019est tout simplement inacceptable tant pour l\u2019Europe que pour les \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n<p>En parall\u00e8le au gel des n\u00e9gociations, les travaux d\u2019enrichissement de l\u2019uranium \u00e0 la centrale souterraine de Fordo progressent et approchent un \u00e9tat de fait duquel il sera pratiquement impossible de revenir en arri\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<p>Pour l\u2019Iran, les sanctions font mal, mais l\u2019hubris qui accompagne le refus de n\u00e9gocier avec le grand Satan am\u00e9ricain est plus fort encore, d\u2019autant plus qu\u2019une coalition en gestation avec la Chine et la Russie fait esp\u00e9rer l\u2019att\u00e9nuation de leur effet. Deux exemples peuvent expliquer le changement de la position iranienne&nbsp;: celui de la Libye qui s\u2019est d\u00e9barrass\u00e9e de ses installations nucl\u00e9aires et dont le r\u00e9gime s\u2019est \u00e9croul\u00e9 ; celui du r\u00e9gime nord-cor\u00e9en qui survit malgr\u00e9 les sanctions tout en d\u00e9veloppant des armes atomiques. Si les leaders iraniens per\u00e7oivent que la survie de leur r\u00e9gime est en danger, la deuxi\u00e8me option pourrait leur para\u00eetre bien meilleure.<\/p>\n<p>Les \u00c9tats-Unis sont bien plus pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par les armes atomiques qui se comptent par milliers pour les Russes, par centaines pour les Chinois et par dizaines pour les Nord-Cor\u00e9ens. Le retrait paniqu\u00e9 des Am\u00e9ricains de l\u2019Afghanistan et le d\u00e9sistement de leur engagement dans la r\u00e9gion ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 un vide au Moyen-Orient. La Russie s\u2019est install\u00e9e en Syrie. L\u2019Iran a attaqu\u00e9 des navires am\u00e9ricains du d\u00e9troit de Bab el-Mandeb par Houtis interpos\u00e9s sans qu\u2019il y ait eu de r\u00e9action. Dito pour le drone de renseignement am\u00e9ricain abattu dans le Golfe persique durant la pr\u00e9sidence de Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Le pr\u00e9sident Biden a appris \u00e0 ses d\u00e9pens qu\u2019il valait mieux conserver de bonnes relations avec le r\u00e9gime saoudien autoritaire, car ses critiques caustiques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des droits de la personne en Arabie se sont sold\u00e9es par une nouvelle politique d\u2019alliances de l\u2019Arabie dans laquelle les int\u00e9r\u00eats am\u00e9ricains ne sont plus prioritaires. Le prix du p\u00e9trole a augment\u00e9 sans que le pr\u00e9sident Biden ait r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 modifier les nouvelles orientations saoudiennes.<\/p>\n<p>Y a-t-il des chances pour qu\u2019une alliance avec la Russie et la Chine constitue un nouveau bloc ? Mal en point, la Russie a acquis des drones suicides et des missiles iraniens et s\u2019est engag\u00e9e en contrepartie a fournir des avions de combat sophistiqu\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019Iran. La Russie pourrait venir en aide au r\u00e9gime iranien comme elle est venue en aide au dictateur syrien, mais la contrepartie iranienne n\u2019est pas claire. La Chine veut jouer sur tous les tableaux, mais ne peut se permettre d\u2019ali\u00e9ner les \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 ce stade-ci. La perspective d\u2019une arme atomique iranienne \u00e0 sa fronti\u00e8re ne l\u2019enchante gu\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<p>La Russie et la Chine viendront en aide \u00e0 l\u2019Iran seulement s\u2019ils peuvent contr\u00f4ler ce pays.<\/p>\n<p>Or, l\u2019Iran pr\u00e9sente des signes d\u2019instabilit\u00e9. Des voix s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8vent au sein des minorit\u00e9s ethniques az\u00e9ries, baloutches, kurdes, arabes et turkm\u00e8nes s\u2019agitant contre l\u2019emprise politique iranienne. Sentant le vent tourner, de nombreux hauts plac\u00e9s du r\u00e9gime s\u2019installent avec leur famille \u00e0 Bourdoum en Turquie. L\u2019arm\u00e9e iranienne a refus\u00e9 d\u2019ob\u00e9ir \u00e0 l\u2019ordre qui lui a \u00e9t\u00e9 donn\u00e9 par les Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution de r\u00e9primer la r\u00e9bellion \u00e0 Chiraz. \u00c0 Bukan, les r\u00e9volutionnaires ont pris le contr\u00f4le de la ville et mis le feu au quartier g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la milice paramilitaire des Basij\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Les Iraniens qui sont t\u00e9moins de l\u2019opulence qui r\u00e8gne dans les pays du Golfe savent fort bien que leurs probl\u00e8mes ne sont pas attribuables \u00e0 l\u2019ing\u00e9rence \u00e9trang\u00e8re mais bien \u00e0 la clique des mullahs au pouvoir. Les slogans des manifestants s\u2019attaquent directement au Guide supr\u00eame Khamenei. \u00c0 partir de son lit de malade, ce dernier a fait savoir qu\u2019il serait possible de n\u00e9gocier avec les insurg\u00e9s apr\u00e8s qu\u2019ils auront \u00e9t\u00e9 punis et qu\u2019ils auront demand\u00e9 gr\u00e2ce, ce sans quoi ils seraient ex\u00e9cut\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>Il est trop t\u00f4t pour savoir si les manifestations prolong\u00e9es de la jeunesse iranienne vont se r\u00e9sorber ou s\u2019amplifier. Les chances que le r\u00e9gime iranien soit s\u00e9rieusement secou\u00e9 sont faibles. Les chances qu\u2019il r\u00e9agisse durement du fait qu\u2019il est accul\u00e9 au mur sont plus grandes. La r\u00e9action actuelle de l\u2019Iran est d\u2019accuser les pays \u00e9trangers d\u2019\u00eatre derri\u00e8re les manifestants et de bombarder les Kurdes d\u2019Irak. La reprise des livraisons de missiles destin\u00e9s au Hezbollah libanais via la Syrie a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 une riposte isra\u00e9lienne ferme. La tentation autodestructrice de s\u2019en prendre aux pays p\u00e9troliers du Golfe persique pourrait poindre.<\/p>\n<p>Les cons\u00e9quences de la perte de cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 des \u00c9tats-Unis auront \u00e9t\u00e9 dramatiques&nbsp;: le pr\u00e9sident Obama a laiss\u00e9 le gouvernement syrien utiliser des armes chimiques contre ses citoyens. Il est revenu sur sa parole de r\u00e9agir fortement si tel avait \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas. Il a pr\u00e9sum\u00e9 qu\u2019avec l\u2019accord des 5+1 l\u2019Iran se rangerait du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des nations civilis\u00e9es. Cette pr\u00e9somption s\u2019est d\u00e9mentie&nbsp;: l\u2019Iran a sem\u00e9 la mis\u00e8re en Syrie, au Liban, en Irak et au Y\u00e9men, pays dont les r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s se comptent par millions.<\/p>\n<p>Le pr\u00e9sident Biden continue de proclamer qu\u2019il soutient Isra\u00ebl et qu\u2019il ne laissera pas l\u2019Iran se doter d\u2019une arme atomique. Il reste \u00e0 savoir s\u2019il a une strat\u00e9gie solide derri\u00e8re ces affirmations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Compte \u00e0 rebours iranien La reprise des n\u00e9gociations des 5 +1 sur le nucl\u00e9aire iranien \u00e0 Vienne a patin\u00e9 et pour cause&nbsp;: c\u2019est l\u2019Iran qui en derni\u00e8re minute a ajout\u00e9 des conditions impossibles, torpillant ainsi les n\u00e9gociations. En effet, cesser de reconna\u00eetre les Gardiens de la r\u00e9volution iraniens comme une entit\u00e9 terroriste et limiter les&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Compte \u00e0 rebours iranien, par David Bensoussan | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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