{"id":67703,"date":"2023-01-01T00:02:39","date_gmt":"2023-01-01T00:02:39","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2023-01-01T00:02:39","modified_gmt":"2023-01-01T00:02:39","slug":"2022-annee-charniere-par-david-bensoussan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harissa.com\/news-wp\/2022-annee-charniere-par-david-bensoussan\/","title":{"rendered":"2022, ann\u00e9e charni\u00e8re, par David Bensoussan"},"content":{"rendered":"

2022, ann\u00e9e charni\u00e8re, par David Bensoussan<\/p>\n

Alors que la plan\u00e8te se remet tant bien que mal de la pand\u00e9mie de la COVID, l\u2019invasion de l\u2019Ukraine par la Russie a chang\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9quilibre g\u00e9opolitique et a affect\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. La confirmation d\u2019un troisi\u00e8me mandat \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence et sans limite d\u2019\u00e2ge de Xi Jinping, la crise de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et de l\u2019alimentation tout comme le r\u00e9sultat mitig\u00e9 des r\u00e9publicains am\u00e9ricains constituent un tournant important du contexte g\u00e9opolitique et \u00e9conomique des pays industrialis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les cons\u00e9quences de l’invasion de l’Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n

Confort\u00e9e par le d\u00e9sistement des \u00c9tats-Unis au Moyen-Orient, puis par la d\u00e9b\u00e2cle am\u00e9ricaine en Afghanistan en 2021, la Russie a tour \u00e0 tour grug\u00e9 des territoires en Ukraine (Crim\u00e9e, Donbass) sans que les pays occidentaux r\u00e9agissent fermement. Mais l\u2019invasion de l\u2019Ukraine a \u00e9t\u00e9 la goutte qui a fait d\u00e9border le vase.<\/p>\n

L\u2019opposition des pays occidentaux \u00e0 cette invasion a \u00e9t\u00e9 unanime. Des sanctions \u00e9conomiques ont \u00e9t\u00e9 impos\u00e9es sur la Russie et de grandes compagnies occidentales ont tout simplement laiss\u00e9 tomber leurs investissements. L\u2019\u00e9conomie et l\u2019armement russes ont peine \u00e0 vivre avec la cessation de l\u2019importation de senseurs et de semiconducteurs avanc\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Le projet de pipeline gazier russe Nord Stream a \u00e9t\u00e9 abandonn\u00e9 et l\u2019\u00e9conomie de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne en souffre. \u00c0 moyen terme, les exportations de gaz am\u00e9ricain pourront r\u00e9pondre aux besoins \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques europ\u00e9ens.<\/p>\n

Quand on sait que la puissante Russie est all\u00e9e qu\u00e9mander des drones et des missiles \u00e0 l\u2019Iran et \u00e0 la Cor\u00e9e du Nord, qu\u2019elle a recouru \u00e0 la conscription de plus de 300 000 soldats et \u00e0 l\u2019engagement de for\u00e7ats dans les troupes de mercenaires de Wagner pour venir \u00e0 bout d\u2019une \u00abop\u00e9ration militaire\u00bb, on comprend que les choses vont au plus mal. Les pertes en \u00e9quipement de la Russie ont \u00e9t\u00e9 plus importantes que l\u2019ensemble des armements que l\u2019Ukraine a re\u00e7u des pays occidentaux.<\/p>\n

Les d\u00e9mocraties ont arm\u00e9 l\u2019Ukraine d\u2019armes d\u00e9fensives redoutables. Elles se sentent soud\u00e9es et recherchent \u00e0 revitaliser l\u2019OTAN. Le pr\u00e9sident Trump avait secou\u00e9 les pays de l\u2019OTAN les accusant de vivre aux crochets de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique et les for\u00e7ant \u00e0 augmenter leur budget de d\u00e9fense. Il avait en outre interdit l\u2019adoption des produits chinois de haute technologie, dont les t\u00e9l\u00e9communications. Cette interdiction a \u00e9t\u00e9 renforc\u00e9e par le pr\u00e9sident Biden qui a prohib\u00e9 la vente des technologies de semiconducteurs avanc\u00e9s \u00e0 la Chine.<\/p>\n

La Chine  <\/strong><\/p>\n

Xi Jinping est devenu le pr\u00e9sident permanent de la Chine. Il ne souffre aucune critique ou dissidence au Politburo et il s\u2019est entour\u00e9 de personnes \u00abs\u00fbres\u00bb. L\u2019agressivit\u00e9 dont il a fait preuve en mer de Chine, au d\u00e9troit de Taiwan et \u00e0 proximit\u00e9 des \u00eeles japonaises de Senkaku a fait que les pays de l\u2019Asie du Sud-est se sont ralli\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Xi Jinping \u2014 qui s\u2019est promis de rallier de gr\u00e9 ou de force Taiwan \u00e0 la Chine \u2014 doit suivre de pr\u00e8s ce qui s\u2019est pass\u00e9 en Ukraine : d\u2019une part, l\u2019armement russe copi\u00e9 ou construit sous licence en Chine ne semble pas avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 performant; d\u2019autre part, le ralliement des pays occidentaux contre la Russie et leur aspiration \u00e0 la \u00abd\u00e9globalisation\u00bb au prix d\u2019une inflation non n\u00e9gligeable doivent lui donner \u00e0 r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir.<\/p>\n

L\u2019hubris de son infaillibilit\u00e9 a re\u00e7u un s\u00e9rieux coup de semonce avec l\u2019abandon de sa politique du \u00abz\u00e9ro COVID\u00bb dont il a longtemps vant\u00e9 la sagacit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 surveiller<\/strong><\/p>\n

La fourniture d\u2019engrais s\u00e9rieusement ralentie par la guerre en Ukraine devient un probl\u00e8me vital. Y r\u00e9pondre est essentiel si l\u2019on veut \u00e9viter une crise de famine mondiale.<\/p>\n

L\u2019Iran se rapproche dangereusement de l\u2019arme atomique. La population iranienne ne fait plus confiance aux mullahs qui recourent \u00e0 la violence. Devant le danger iranien, les pays du Golfe soudent leurs liens militaires et diplomatiques avec Isra\u00ebl. M\u00eame l\u2019erratique pr\u00e9sident turc Erdogan fait des appels de pied \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl depuis plus d\u2019un an. Des d\u00e9cisions cruciales devront \u00eatre prises \u00e0 ce sujet.<\/p>\n

Selon toute probabilit\u00e9, la Russie pr\u00e9pare une attaque massive de l\u2019Ukraine au printemps 2023 en tenant compte des le\u00e7ons tir\u00e9es sur la performance de l\u2019Arm\u00e9e rouge en 2022. Le fait que la Pologne ait d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de faire des exercices militaires avec 200 000 soldats et autant de r\u00e9servistes au mois de mars 2023 est peut-\u00eatre le signe que ce pays se pr\u00e9pare au pire.<\/p>\n

Dans son ouvrage pr\u00e9monitoire Le probl\u00e8me de la Chine publi\u00e9 en 1922, le philosophe britannique Bertrand Russell avan\u00e7ait avec enthousiasme que la Chine avec ses ressources, sa population et son esprit patriotique, pouvait devenir \u00abla plus grande puissance du monde apr\u00e8s les \u00c9tats-Unis.\u00bb Mais il ajoutait \u00e9galement une r\u00e9serve : \u00able danger du patriotisme est que, d\u00e8s qu\u2019il s\u2019est av\u00e9r\u00e9 assez fort pour une d\u00e9fense r\u00e9ussie, il est susceptible de se tourner vers l\u2019agression \u00e9trang\u00e8re.\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2022, ann\u00e9e charni\u00e8re, par David Bensoussan Alors que la plan\u00e8te se remet tant bien que mal de la pand\u00e9mie de la COVID, l\u2019invasion de l\u2019Ukraine par la Russie a chang\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9quilibre g\u00e9opolitique et a affect\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. La confirmation d\u2019un troisi\u00e8me mandat \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence et sans limite d\u2019\u00e2ge de Xi Jinping, la crise de… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\n2022, ann\u00e9e charni\u00e8re, par David Bensoussan | HARISSA.COM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2022, ann\u00e9e charni\u00e8re, par David Bensoussan Alors que la plan\u00e8te se remet tant bien que mal de la 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